Jul 21, 2008

If Google should falter, how many others will follow?

Nothing says "recession" like a bit of a dip in the rate of growth of Google's profits, which is what we saw this week. The search engine company has built up such a mythical presence in the minds of the old media, most spend their evenings behind the sofa shivering with primal fear, waiting to be disaggregated by the jolly primary coloured beast. But there are a couple of things to remember - Google's results this quarter represented a slowing in the rate of growth rather than a full-throttle reversal of fortune, and it were slightly impaired by the effect of interest payments on its purchase of DoubleClick's online advertising business. At more or less the same time as spotty youths on Wall Street were signalling sell on Google, Microsoft (which also took a bit of a market battering last week) was waving the worried flag over Google's potential dominance of a search advertising market. The irony of the situation is acute.

And if proof were needed that Google is not in trouble, it came last Friday when the US research company Efficient Frontier put out a report saying that Google took 77.4% of all search ad spending in the second quarter (April-June). In fact Efficient Frontier did the maths and came to the conclusion that Google actually now takes $1.10 for every dollar spent in search advertising. This is not some wonky Sats marking, it means that both Microsoft and Yahoo! were losing search advertising money in that quarter - to Google. (full story Link)

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